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Market chaos could come next year if the US doesn't adjust its fiscal path, Joao Gomes told CNBC. The US can't afford to extend tax cuts next year, he said. If it doesn't adjust its fiscal trajectory soon, 2025 could be the year when markets start to roil, Wharton professor Joao Gomes warned. "That's something that could definitely happen to us next year," Gomes told CNBC on Thursday. "I think we'll have a serious debate next year about the tax cuts and whether to extend them or not," he said.
Persons: Joao Gomes, Wharton, , It's, Gomes, Maya MacGuineas, Gomes isn't, Jamie Dimon, Ken Griffin Organizations: CNBC, US, Service, Bank of America, Penn Wharton Budget Model, Trump Administration, White House, Federal, Wall Locations: roil
The US government's ballooning interest payments are eating a hole in its budget, they said. "We are headed toward record spending levels, record deficit levels, record debt levels, record interest payments — the list goes and on," Maya MacGuineas, the president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told Fox Business this week. While the US isn't at imminent risk of that kind of chaos, bond markets could "snap back" if the government's interest payments soar to $1 trillion in 2026 as expected, Swagel said. AdvertisementHowever, she noted that some experts on Wall Street were "incredibly worried" about the national debt and interest payments. DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has also sounded the alarm on debt payments.
Persons: , MacGuineas, Philip Swagel, Liz Truss, Swagel, bitcoin, Jim Rogers, George Soros, He's, Jeffrey Gundlach Organizations: Investors, Service, Federal Budget, Fox Business, Congressional, Office, Financial Times, Bank of, CBO, Wall, DoubleLine
October 1 has been the official kickoff date for the federal fiscal year since 1977. Lawmakers have passed at least one continuing resolution in all but three of the years in the nearly half-century since. Instead, they will wrap the spending bills into larger packages – frequently called an “omnibus” that is passed in December or later. In 1997, for instance, there was no CR, but the spending bills were all passed together as an omnibus. Don’t hold your breath for them to get the 2025 spending bills done on time.
Persons: , Joe Biden, haven’t, Maya MacGuineas, CNN’s Tami Luhby, arrearages, Biden, What’s, Mike Johnson Organizations: CNN, CRs, Journalists, Senate, Lawmakers, Congressional Research Service, GAO, Federal, WIC, Budget, Low Income, Energy Assistance, National Energy Assistance, Association, Partnership for Public Service, Democratic, Capitol Hill, Agriculture, FDA, Commerce, Justice, Science, Energy, Water, Veterans Affairs, Transportation, Housing, Urban Development, Defense, Financial Services, General Government, Homeland Security, Labor, Health, Human Services, Foreign Locations: Washington, State
CNN —When President Joe Biden convenes a joint session of Congress, his Cabinet, military leaders and Supreme Court justices for his highly anticipated State of the Union address next week, it’s possible that the government could be partially shut down – and barreling toward a full shutdown. Biden’s address, set for Thursday, March 7, falls between a pair of critical government funding deadlines. It would mark the first time a US president has delivered a State of the Union address during a government shutdown, partial or otherwise, and would reflect how an increasingly polarized Congress has repeatedly struggled to reach consensus on what was once a governing imperative. While it’s legally and logistically feasible for a president to deliver a State of the Union address during a partial shutdown, there are considerations about the message that doing so would send at home and around the globe. Trump ultimately delivered the address upon the conclusion of the 35-day shutdown.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, it’s, , Maya MacGuineas, “ It’s, Scott Perry of, Perry, , Nancy Pelosi, Donald Trump, Pelosi, disinvited Trump, Trump, Mike Johnson, MacGuineas Organizations: CNN, Union, Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Housing, Urban Development, Transportation, Energy, Republicans, White, Republican, Fox Business, Service, Department of Homeland Security, Louisiana Republican Locations: America, Congress, Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, Louisiana
CNN —The federal budget deficit will balloon from $1.6 trillion this fiscal year to $2.6 trillion in fiscal year 2034, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office outlook released Wednesday. A major reason for the widening gap between revenue and spending: a spike in net interest payments on the federal debt due to higher interest rates. The nation’s debt held by the public is expected to rise to a record 116% of the economy by 2034. CBO’s deficit projection will likely add pressure to congressional lawmakers who have yet to agree on funding for federal agencies for fiscal year 2024. Budget experts called on Congress to take action to address the nation’s worsening fiscal situation.
Persons: MacGuineas, they’ve, Mike Johnson, ” Michael Peterson, Peter G Organizations: CNN, Congressional, Social Security, Medicare, CBO, GOP, Capitol, Federal, House Republicans, Peterson Foundation
Watch CNBC's full interview with Maya McGuineas and Krishna Guha
  + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Maya McGuineas and Krishna GuhaMaya MacGuineas, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president, and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI head of global policy, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming government shutdown deadline, increasing U.S. debt, and more.
Persons: Maya McGuineas, Krishna Guha Maya MacGuineas, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: Federal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. recession where interest rates rise is unlikely, says Evercore's Krishna GuhaMaya MacGuineas, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president, and Krishna Guha, Evercore ISI head of global policy, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the looming government shutdown deadline, increasing U.S. debt, and more.
Persons: Evercore's Krishna Guha Maya MacGuineas, Krishna Guha, Evercore Organizations: U.S, Federal
WASHINGTON (AP) — House Republicans went after the IRS — long a GOP whipping child — when they decided that emergency aid for Israel should be coupled with cuts elsewhere in the budget. The aid bill that passed the House on Thursday — unlikely to be approved by the Democratic-controlled Senate — would cut $14 billion from the nation's tax collector in exchange for providing assistance to Israel. President Joe Biden has said he would veto the bill if it reaches his desk. The IRS cutback would cost taxpayers billions of dollars, not save money, according to independent budget analysts. In June, legislation to raise the statutory debt limit also rescinded $1.4 billion given to the federal tax collector through the IRA.
Persons: , Joe Biden, , Danny Werfel, Werfel, MacGuineas Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Republicans, IRS, Democratic, Congressional, Treasury, Federal Budget Locations: Israel
Mr. Johnson, the Louisiana Republican who has personally voted against sending military aid to Kyiv, released a $14 billion aid bill for Israel on Monday. But Mr. Johnson spurned that request, in an acknowledgment of how toxic funding for Ukraine has become among Republicans. agents,” Mr. Johnson said. “Instead of advancing a serious proposal to defend Israel, defend Ukraine and provide humanitarian aid, this House G.O.P. My guess is you can get Ukraine aid passed, probably as a stand-alone bill here.
Persons: Mike Johnson’s, Biden, Johnson, Biden’s, Fox News’s, ” Mr, Chuck Schumer, Mr, Kevin McCarthy, Thomas Massie of, Marjorie Taylor Greene, , , Ms, Greene, , Steven Ellis, MacGuineas, Mitch McConnell of, , Schumer, McConnell, Oksana Markarova, I’ve, Johnson’s, Susan Collins of, “ I’m, Josh Hawley, Let’s, Hawley, McConnell “, let’s, Patty Murray, Antony J, Blinken, ” Zach Montague Organizations: Senate, Louisiana Republican, Internal Revenue Service, Israel, Fox, Democratic, Republicans, United, Taxpayers, Federal Budget, Biden, Republican, University of Louisville, Ukraine, Mr Locations: Israel, Ukraine, Louisiana, Kyiv, Taiwan, United States, New York, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, America, Kentucky, Ukrainian, Susan Collins of Maine, Gaza, Josh Hawley of Missouri, Washington, Russia, Iran
The trajectory of US debt interest payments is not sustainable, Maya MacGuineas told Insider. Interest will eclipse defense spending in four years, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget president said. By that measure, US debt interest payments will become the single biggest federal expenditure by 2051, when it eclipses Social Security. AdvertisementAdvertisement"So clearly not sustainable," Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told Insider. AdvertisementAdvertisementAt today's level, interest payments already outpace federal spending on youth education, and in four years, it will top defense spending.
Persons: MacGuineas, Janet Yellen, it's Organizations: Federal, Social, Service, CNBC, Congressional, Federal Budget, Treasury Locations: Wall, Silicon
What could happen if the government shuts down
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Clare Foran | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Congressional leaders on both sides of the aisle are hoping to pass a short-term funding extension to keep the lights on and avert a shutdown. What could happen during a shutdownIn the event of a shutdown, many government operations would come to a halt, but some services deemed “essential” would continue. Once a shutdown is over, federal employees who were required to work and those who were furloughed will receive backpay. Employees deemed “essential” and required to work were already guaranteed backpay after a shutdown prior to the passage of that legislation. And federal employees aren’t the only ones who can feel the effects of a shutdown.
Persons: it’s, furloughed, Sen, Ben Cardin, Trump, you’re, , Maya MacGuineas, It’s, White Organizations: CNN, Congressional, Federal, Maryland Democrat, Employees, Park Service, Senate, Democrats, Republicans, White House, Department of Health, Human Services, TSA, Food and Drug Administration Locations: Ukraine, Maryland, shutdowns
Though the showdown unnerved investors and prompted threats of a second U.S. debt downgrade in a little over a decade, proposals to abolish the debt ceiling have gained little traction in Congress in recent years. But Democrats did not try to abolish the debt ceiling when they controlled the White House and both chambers of Congress in 2021 and 2022. 'OUTLIVED ITS USEFULNESS'Some budget hawks who previously supported the debt ceiling now argue that the growing dysfunction in Washington has made the risk of default too great. Absent those reforms, many budget experts say the debt ceiling is the only way to force some sort of fiscal restraint. "I would never just drop the debt ceiling and do nothing else in its stead.
Persons: we've, Mike Rounds, Janet Yellen, Steve Ellis, We're, Bill Foster, Barack Obama, Brian Riedl, Riedl, MacGuineas, Andy Sullivan, David Morgan, Scott Malone, Chizu Organizations: Republicans, Democratic, White, Republican, Taxpayers, Democrats, Congress, Biden, Manhattan Institute, Center, Budget, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, United States, Denmark
WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) - The bipartisan debt-ceiling deal that could clear Congress as soon as Thursday would stave off an imminent U.S. default, but might deliver less budget savings than Republicans have hoped for, according to nonpartisan budget analysts. The agreement ensures that President Joe Biden will not have to grapple with another debt-ceiling showdown until after the November 2024 election. That is less than the $4.8 trillion Republicans had initially sought, but still the largest deficit-reduction package since a 2011 deal that emerged from a similar debt-ceiling showdown. That would put more $1 trillion of the deal's anticipated savings at risk, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a research group. The deal increases spending on defense and veterans' care, even as it aims to clamp down on other discretionary programs.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, MacGuineas, Biden, Veronique de Rugy, George Mason University's, Penn Wharton, McCarthy, Emily Gee, Andy Sullivan, Scott Malone, Alistair Bell Organizations: Penn Wharton Budget, White, Internal, Service, Office, Republican, SNAP, Social Security, Center for American, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCongress needs to reform debt ceiling to remove chaos around default threats, says Maya MacGuineasStifel’s Brian Gardner and Maya MacGuineas, The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the debt ceiling fight and its impact on the U.S. financial system.
In theory, the debt ceiling should act as a fiscal restraint during the budgeting process. Deciding later not to pay the bills by not raising the debt ceiling is not sound fiscal policy. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, a Republican, has said the debt ceiling is counterproductive. And the CEO of the nation’s biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon turns visibly frustrated at the subject of the debt ceiling. KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk says the politicization of the debt ceiling has weakened America.
But some areas of potential compromise emerged after a White House meeting on Tuesday. Deep disagreements remained over competing pressures for spending cuts versus tax increases. Meanwhile, the White House reiterated its backing for legislation speeding government permitting of energy projects by setting maximum timelines. House and Senate Republicans, meanwhile, have said they will not authorize any additional borrowing without an agreement to cut future spending. The last time the nation got this close to default was in 2011 - also with a Democratic president and Senate with a Republican-led House.
Overall, the budget would increase federal spending in the twelve months starting in October to $6.8 trillion from the $6.2 trillion expected to be spent in the current fiscal year. Biden's budget proposal faces stiff opposition from Republican lawmakers emboldened by winning control of the House of Representatives in November's midterm elections. Biden, asked for areas of possible compromise with Republicans, told reporters at the White House: "We'll see what their budget is." Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget advocacy group, said the budget did not go nearly far enough to rein in dangerous debt levels. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-partisan Washington think tank, said Biden deserved credit for for putting forward $3 trillion in deficit reduction.
President Joe Biden speaks about protecting Social Security, Medicare, and lowering prescription drug costs, during a visit to OB Johnson Park and Community Center, in Hallandale Beach, Florida, on Nov. 1, 2022. Kevin Lamarque | ReutersSocial Security and the debt ceiling debateThe future of Social Security and Medicare have increasingly come up in the debate around the debt ceiling. Both Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have vowed to keep changes to Social Security and Medicare off the table. That would include Social Security's pension and disability, Medicare Part A and highway trust funds. Social Security changes require bipartisan support
US deficit widens by $85 billion in December
  + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Minneapolis CNN —The US government recorded a deficit of $85 billion in December, bringing the total deficit to nearly $1.42 trillion for the 2022 calendar year, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. The government, which runs on a fiscal year that starts in October, is running a deficit of $421.41 billion for its fiscal first quarter of 2023, a 12% increase from the fiscal first quarter of 2022, Treasury data shows. December’s deficit was nearly four times as large as the $21.3 billion deficit recorded in December 2021 as spending grew and revenue fell last month. Receipts totaled $454.94 billion, while outlays were $539.94 billion in December 2022. The House Republicans’ rules package adopted earlier this week included measures aimed at reining in federal government spending and keeping a lid on taxes.
The Senate voted 70-25 to proceed to debate of the bill, with some Republican senators hoping to offer amendments. A handful of conservative Senate Republicans on Tuesday said they objected to the bill, but would not try to stop its passage. Top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell said most of his caucus supports it: "We're moving toward completing the business for the year. And I think in a highly productive way from the point of view of the vast majority of Senate Republicans." Among the most significant add-ons to the spending bill is the bipartisan Electoral Count Act, which overhauls and clarifies Congress' certification process for presidential elections.
WASHINGTON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Conservative Republicans in the U.S. Senate on Tuesday expressed outrage at a $1.66 trillion government funding bill, but signaled that they did not intend to significantly delay the measure, which could lead to a weekend partial government shutdown. Fellow Republican Senator Mike Braun said the group will intensify its budget reform efforts next year, when Republicans take control of the House of Representatives. Top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell said most of his caucus supports it: "We're moving toward completing the business for the year. And I think in a highly productive way from the point of view of the vast majority of Senate Republicans." Among the most significant add-ons to the spending bill is the bipartisan Electoral Count Act, which overhauls and clarifies Congress' certification process for presidential elections.
WASHINGTON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate planned to take its first vote on a $1.66 trillion government funding bill on Tuesday, as lawmakers scrambled to pass the measure and avert a possible partial government shutdown beginning on Saturday. The total funding proposed by the sweeping bill, is up from the approximately $1.5 trillion the previous year. It also includes funding to prepare for and respond to potential nuclear and radiological incidents in Ukraine. On the non-defense side of the ledger, the bill's negotiators have set funding at $800 billion, a $68 billion increase over the previous year. This was the second year in a row Congress included funding for hundreds of largely unrelated projects requested by individual lawmakers.
"I want to save Social Security, Medicare and Veterans benefits." A spokeswoman for Scott pointed to a recent interview where he said his plan would help make sure people get their Social Security benefits. Specific plans from both parties are needed to secure the future of both Social Security and Medicare, she said. Due to high inflation, estimates show the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is poised to be the highest in decades, according to The Senior Citizens League. One more month of consumer price index data will come in before the official bump for next year is announced by the Social Security Administration.
WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden's plan to forgive $10,000 in federal student debt for most borrowers will cost the government about $400 billion over 10 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said in an estimate released Monday. The report also noted that the administration plan to extend a pause on federal student loans will also cost about $20 billion. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a group that advocates for lower deficits, said the CBO's predictions confirm "the outrageous cost" of Biden's student loan plan. "The Biden Administration’s student debt bailout is even more expensive than we initially thought," tweeted Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz. "The current bailout will cost Americans $420 BILLION, according to the CBO. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, tweeted, "President Biden isn’t forgiving student loans—he’s charging hardworking Americans $400 billion."
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